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News & Commentary: By Peter Brookes
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WHAT CHINA REALLY WANTS
July 17, 2006 01:29 PM EST

"When China wakes, it will shake the world."- Napoleon

CHINA'S foot-dragging on getting tough with North Korea and Iran at the U.N.
Security Council has been giving the United States and others fits recently
- and for good reason.

Beijing's unwillingness (and Moscow's) to tag either country with economic
sanctions under U.N. Charter Chapter 7 has only served to spur on Tehran and
Pyongyang's outlaw behavior. (Saturday's U.N. vote on North Korea's missile
launches is a positive step, but it only bars missile-related trade - a
concession to Beijing to prevent its veto of the resolution.)

In fact, if the United Nations had already taken a muscular stance with both
parties, we likely wouldn't be facing Iran's current adventurism in Lebanon
or Pyongyang's continued saber rattling.

Be that as it may, Beijing is playing a prominent role in dealing with both,
making it a good time to take a look at what informs and motivates Chinese
international behavior.

In theory, China's foreign policy is still based on the guidance of former
leader Deng Xiaoping (d. 1997), who gave direction in his famous
"28-Character Strategy" of the early 1990s: "Observe calmly; secure our
position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capabilities and bide our time;
be good at maintaining a low profile; never claim leadership; and make some
contribution."

Of course, debate occurs among Chinese elites about the strategy, which
suggests downplaying China's ambitions and capabilities in the short term to
maximize its long-run options. It's clear that some other imperatives also
drive Beijing's thinking.

Nationalism: The belief that the nation suffered 150 years of humiliation at
the hands of "foreign devils" (western colonialists and Japanese
imperialists) animates Chinese foreign policy. In Beijing's view, it's time
to wipe away this disgraceful period of history by returning China to its
rightful place atop the international pecking order as the historic "Middle
Kingdom."

China already sees its ascension as a certainty, and demands the respect and
courtesies afforded a great power - meaning it won't be "bullied" at the
United Nations on weighty issues like Iran or North Korea.

Development: Beijing realizes that economic progress is vital to getting to
the top of the world political order.

Having seen the Soviet Union, for all its political and military power, land
in the dustbin of history, dragged down by economic weakness, Beijing vowed
not to make that mistake - and committed itself to a grand strategy that
makes economic development a priority.

Today, China is the world's fourth largest economy, having grown at near
double-digit rates for a decade - and it holds the world's second-largest
foreign currency reserves, too, including our greenbacks.

And that economic strength is translating to political and military power,
as planned - yielding kowtows from world leaders and captains of industry
alike, and fueling a troubling military build-up as well.

In recent years, Beijing has identified access to energy resources as vital
to its drive to secure rapid economic growth. The priority now dominates
Chinese foreign policy.

Thus, the unwillingness to punish Iran over its nuclear program stems from
Beijing's understanding that U.N. economic sanctions would cut the flow of
Iranian oil to Chinese factories. China now gets 15 percent of its oil from
Iran, its No. 2 supplier, and will buy $100 billion in Iranian liquid
natural gas over the next 25 years.

Security: Instability is bad for economic growth, so China's grand strategy
requires tranquility from the 14 nations that ring its periphery. This
includes getting along with regional big boys like Russia and India. Plus
avoiding a knockdown, drag-out fight with the United States - at present the
biggest obstacle to Beijing's global preeminence.

It accounts for China's stubbornness over North Korea, too. Slapping broad
sanctions on Pyongyang could cause the rickety regime to crumble, leading to
war or refugee flows into China.

And it gives Beijing another reason to cuddle up to Tehran - to ensure the
mullahs don't export their brand of Islamic radicalism to China's western
province of Xinjiang, home to 55 million restive Muslims.

Bottom line? China's rise may be "peaceful and harmonious," as Beijing
asserts. But its ambitions far exceed its historical sphere of influence.
Aspiring to replace the United States as the lone superpower, it will
inevitably use its growing global influence to balance - if not thwart -
U.S. interests whenever necessary.

Heritage Foundation senior fellow Peter Brookes is the author of : "A Devil's Triangle: Terrorism, WMD and Rogue States." peterbrookes@heritage.org




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