Senator McCain has made a big mistake by linking the success of his presidential campaign to the success of Operation Surge, the US military campaign in Iraq. This is because the Iraqi Kurds, supported by Iran, will disrupt Operation Surge as they carve out an independent Kurdish state (“Kurdistan”) in northern Iraq.

In other words, the Iraqi Kurds will sink Senator John McCain. It is not that the Kurds dislike McCain or see his presidency as a threat to their interests in Iraq. Most Kurds admire Senator McCain and see him as an ally. Rather, the necessity for Kurdish pressure against Senator McCain is dictated by the need to separate the new Kurdish state from Iraq within the next six months, while George Bush is still in office and US troops are still deployed in Iraq.

Thanks to President Bush’s political commitments made to the Kurds prior to the US invasion of Iraq, the Kurds are ninety percent of the way towards the goal of creating an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq. These Bush commitments include the following policies.

First, the Kurds have the right to maintain their own militia known as the peshmerga. The Kurdish militia is by far the second most powerful fighting force in Iraq, following the Iraqi Army. However, the peshmerga is not under Iraqi military command but reports only to Kurdish political leaders. In contrast, the Sunni and Shi’ite militias are small in comparison. The US has permitted Kurdish authorities to concentrate the peshmerga in northern Iraq where it can be used in support of a Kurdish bid for independence from Iraq.

Second, President Bush promised to turn the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk and its vast oil wealth over to the Kurds via a plesbicite to be held no later than June 2008. Kurdish leaders intend that Kirkuk will be the capital city of “Kurdistan.”

Third, the US granted the Kurds dominance in Mosul, which is the largest city in northern Iraq. Although Mosul is populated by Arabs, Kurdish military forces control the city, under the nominal command of the Iraqi Army. As long as Kurdish forces are in control, Mosul’s Arabs will be in no position to deter Kurdish and Kirkuk separation from Iraq.

Fourth, the US has permitted the PKK to transfer its military operations against Turkey from Syria to northern Iraq. Moreover, the US has repeatedly warned Turkey, as recently as this week, against intervening in northern Iraq to deter the PKK (see the comments by US Secretary of defense Robert Gates).

In short, the Kurds will disrupt Operation Surge and Senator McCain’s presidential campaign. As noted earlier, they want to separate Kirkuk and Kurdistan from Iraq before President Bush leaves office. The Kurds have nothing against McCain, who just happens to be in their way.