The Democrat National Committee is facing a huge problem when it comes to the allocation of delegates at their 2008 convention. Last year, when it became clear that several states wanting a piece of the profitable early campaigning were going to reschedule their primaries, both parties decided to step in to end the jockeying.

The Republicans issued a mandate that any state going out of order would forfeit half their delegates. The Democrats went further, stripping non-compliant states of all delegates.

Florida and Michigan challenged party rules and moved to the front of the season. All would have been okay if, like in past years, the nominee was decided by a large enough margin the sanctions would not have an impact on the ultimate outcome. The Republicans were fortunate to have a decisive victory before the end of the primary season. The Democrats were not so lucky.

Now neither of the two leading democrat candidates is likely to have a majority when the primary process is over. The result is that a tough decision must be made to keep Floridians and Michiganders from being disenfranchised.

The leadership lesson is clear. Before mandating policies or rules, a leader must clearly consider what will happen in all scenarios. This is the process of risk management.

To be effective at risk management, one must follow the following steps:

1. Review likely scenarios. This requires strong brainstorming facilitation where absolutely every likely consequence or action is determined. A good brainstorming session can typically do so in less than 30 minutes.
2. Determine the likelihood of each scenario. Some scenarios will have a high likelihood while others will have a remote likelihood. This will be an educated guess, but closeness is quicker than specificity and just as effective in the process.
3. Determine the impact of each scenario. If the scenario happens, how detrimental will it be to your project, processes, productivity, or profitability. Do not consider the likelihood when determining the impact.
4. Evaluate impact and likelihood. Look at the high, moderate, and low rating of each scenario’s likelihood and impact. For those that show merit, have a plan of action. If something has a high impact and no reasonable remedy is available, you may want to completely rethink the policy.

Had the DNC considered what would happen should the delegates from Florida and Michigan not be seated, and that they could be the deciding factor in who would get the nod for the November election, they would have seen that they needed to give further thought to their policy. Having done so, they would not be faced with their current dilemma.