Bolivia’s democratic forces must anticipate that Morales intends to intimidate Santa Cruz before negotiations by bringing in more arms and advisors from Venezuela, Cuba  and Nicaragua.  In this context, Bolivia’s democratic forces should present the following demands to Morales on a non-negotiable basis.

First, Morales must withdraw his comments that challenge the legality of the Santa Cruz referendum.

Second, Chavez must announce his willingness to abide by the outcome of the Santa Cruz vote as well as the votes in additional Bolivian states.

Third, Morales shall agree not to deploy military, paramilitary, or police forces to the territory of any Bolivian state without the prior consent of the government of that state.Fourth,

Morales shall suspend his military-to-military agreements with Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua. Morales must also suspend arms purchases from these countries.

Fifth, Morales must break diplomatic relations with Iran.

Sixth, Morales shall not interfere as Santa Cruz establishes bilateral military consultation groups with other countries.Seventh, Santa Cruz will ask the US to initiate an “equip and train” for the pro-democracy military forces in Santa Cruz, as the US provided for Slovenia, Bosnia and Croatia in the 1990’s.

China is aware that Maoist and ultra-leftist guerrilla groups are making a  comeback in Peru including Sendero Luminoso) and Tupac Amaru.  Moreover, these Maoist groups can rely for support on an extensive network of Maoist “humanitarian” organizations  funded by Germany and the EU (see O’Grady in the WSJ). Meanwhile, Bush’s influence in Latin America has collapsed.  Bush has no visible strategy to counter the ultra-leftists and fascists in Latin America.  Brazil, Chile, and Argentina have also refused to stop Evo Morales.  China must take the lead.